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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

17.07.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: HOLD
from: 17.07.2025
Target price: EUR 60.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

12 day war dampens growth, focus on 3rd runway decision day

Topic: FWAG released June traffic results, that are temporarily dampened by
the twelve day Iran-Israel war in June. Despite sound operating results,
investors should start to focus on the upcoming decision day for the 3rd
runway project. In detail:

June passenger numbers rose by 1.5% yoy to 4.03m on group level. The growth
was particularly driven by the strategic investments MLA (+7.5% yoy; 23%
group share) and KSC (+9.5% yoy; 2.5% group share), whereas the main airport
VIE declined by 0.4% yoy to 3.02m passengers. Compared to other European
airports (FRA: 3% yoy, MUC: 6% yoy, ZUR: 5% yoy, MAD: 0.5% yoy), VIE thus
fell behind in terms of growth. On a YTD basis however, VIE still stands
well positioned against its peers, showing a solid 2.4% yoy passenger growth
rate (FRA: 1% yoy, MUC: 3.6% yoy, ZUR: 3% yoy, MAD: 3% yoy).

This effect should be largely explained by the fact, that 1) VIE serves as
an important hub in the Israel - USA travel route and 2) is relatively
strong on the standalone Austria-Israel travel route. Due to the twelve day
Iran-Israel war, almost all VIE <-> Israel flights were cancelled (except
from Israel's airline El Al). Going forward, Austrian Airlines, Lufthansa,
Ryanair and Wizz Air aim to resume scheduled flights to Israel in August.
Therefore, the effect from the war on VIE's passenger growth should also be
visible in July '25. Although the effect cannot be isolated in full, we
estimate a c. 50k monthly passengers loss from the war, which would imply a
June growth rate of 1.3% yoy, had the war not happened.

Focus on the third runway project decision. Vienna airport should decide
upon the third runway project within the next 6-12 months, with the
following implications: In a positive decision, VIE would use its existing
cash and probably further external (debt or potentially equity) financing to
build a third runway south of the current field by 2030. Mind you, this
project would not encompass a sole runway, but would include terminal
buildings and many other infrastructure measures with a total CAPEX of more
than EUR 2bn (eNuW). This would provide sufficient capacities for decades and
would secure future growth potentials in the long-term. In a negative
decision scenario, FWAG has a very high surplus cash (Q1'25: EUR 562m), which
is not needed to fund CAPEX and which will likely be distributed to
shareholders in the form of dividends (one big special dividend or an
elevated dividend over multiple years), in our view.

Against this backdrop, the operational performance during the current summer
season is increasingly taking a back seat, when looking at FWAG as an
investment opportunity, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our HOLD
recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 60.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f817f9fee0011d41f2c4475e0488f1e6
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2170956 17.07.2025 CET/CEST

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