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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

17.10.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name: MHP Hotel AG
ISIN: DE000A3E5C24

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 17.10.2025
Target price: EUR 3.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Solid Q3; Conrad ramp-up sets stage for strong year-end

MHP delivered a solid Q3 performance, demonstrating the resilience of its
premium positioning despite an exceptionally strong prior-year base marked
by major one-off events such as the UEFA Euro and large concert series.
Occupancy came in at 81% vs. 82% in Q3'24, while ADR slightly declined to EUR
228 (Q3'24: EUR 229), resulting in a RevPar of EUR 185 (Q3'24: EUR 189). Given
last year's unusually high demand levels, the near-stability in ADR and only
marginal dip in occupancy clearly underline MHP's sustained pricing power
and strong demand fundamentals across its portfolio. Including the newly
opened Conrad Hamburg, occupancy stood at 79% with an ADR of EUR 227 and
RevPar of EUR 179, indicating that the new asset is already tracking close to
group metrics despite being in its initial ramp-up phase.

On the revenue side, total hotel sales increased by 2% yoy to EUR 45.2m. While
Logis revenue was slightly down by 1% due to timing effects as well as the
mentioned tough comparable base, F&B once again outperformed with +11% yoy
to EUR 8.8m, reflecting the continued success of MHP's high-margin culinary
concepts. The opening of the 283-room Conrad Hamburg in early September
marks a strategic milestone, adding more than 10% capacity at group level
and strengthening MHP's footprint in the luxury segment. Early trading
feedback appears promising and, together with the ongoing ramp-up of the
Koenigshof in Munich, should drive operating leverage into the seasonally
stronger H2.

On this basis, management confirmed the FY25 guidance of EUR 180m sales and EUR
15m EBITDA, which we view as well within reach. Based on the strong H1 and
stable Q3 metrics, the implied H2 growth and margin profile (c. 11% sales
growth and low-to-mid-teens EBITDA margin) appear realistic. Beyond
operational momentum, MHP remains well positioned for portfolio expansion.
Following the EUR 4.5m capital increase in July and access to additional
credit lines, the company holds a "war chest" of more than EUR 10m. With peers
in the economy and mid-scale segment still facing pressure, attractive
takeover opportunities in prime locations persist. As our model does not
include any portfolio additions beyond the Stuttgart project (opening 2028),
any additional new opening would provide upside to our estimates. In
addition, the company may further roll out its high-margin lifestyle brand
MOOONS.

Overall, Q3 confirms the structural strength of MHP's business model: high
occupancy, sustained pricing power even against tough comps, growing F&B,
and a new luxury flagship coming online ahead of a strong seasonal phase. We
therefore reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 3.00 based on
DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=2f49a7d22cf36c3ccfa881297129c81b
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
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