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Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG

23.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A41YCM0

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 9.5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Mixed FY25 prelims // Promising EBITDA guidance for FY26

NAGA recently reported preliminary FY25 figures that came in as a mixed bag
with slightly softer than expected sales but stable OPEX. Further, the
company provided a dnew guidance for FY26e. In detail:

Sales came in at EUR 62.4m (-1% yoy), below our estimates of EUR 64.4m, but in
line with the reduced guidance of EUR 62-66m, published in December 2025. The
comapny reached the only the lower end of the guidance due to FX-effects
that amount to c. EUR 3m, related to the weak UDS. In general, topline in FY25
was burdened by a low average volatility environment that should have caused
lower trading activity, that should have been been visible in a only flat
number of closed trades (eNuW: 7.6m, vs 7.6m in FY24). Positively, number of
registered users increased by 13% yoy and overall trading volume rose by 36%
yoy to $ 334bn, hence, underlying platform attractiveness remained well
perceived.

EBITDA stood at EUR 3.3m (-61% yoy vs eNuW: EUR 4.6m), which is at the lower end
of the guidance range of EUR 3-6m, clearly caused by the FX effects that
burdened topline. While marketing spending increased by 18% to EUR 28.2m,
overall OPEX (ex marketing) declined slightly from EUR 22.7m to EUR 21.7m (vs
eNuW: EUR 21.5m), driven by synergy effects from the merger and increasing
operational efficiency and automation.

Overall 2025 was a rather disappointing year characterized by a low
volatility environment that weighed heavy on trading activity and revenues.
Still, management improved processes and increased automation as well as
operational efficiency. With increased marketing spending in a low
volatility environment, NAGA invested anti-cyclically in client acquisition
using lower CPA. With that NAGA looks well prepared for a phase of higher
volatility to restart its growth engine. Note that the full effects of
improved processes and efficiency will be visible from FY26 onwards.

In light of a good start into 2026 (revenues in January up 117% yoy), NAGA
provided a new outlook for FY26, now expecting to reach sales of EUR 68-75m
and EBITDA of EUR 10-15m. While the topline is in line with our expectation
(eNuW: EUR 70.3m), the EBITDA guidance looks ambitious (eNuW: EUR 9.5m). Still,
a normalized volatility level throughout 2026 as well as certain volatility
spikes would change the picture. Further, a full year lower cost run-rate
following efficiency gains, should additionally increase EBITDA levels.
Still, we remain cautious for the moment and leave some room for potential
upside in our estimates.

We reiterate BUY with a unchanged PT of EUR 9.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=718cb607d6a354b9624ea27b8fb95615
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2279606 23.02.2026 CET/CEST

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