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Original-Research: Bittium Oyj - from NuWays AG

23.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Bittium Oyj

Company Name: Bittium Oyj
ISIN: FI0009007264

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 40
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Julius Neittamo

Q1 preview: excellent growth, pipeline rich in catalysts

Bittium will publish its Q1'26 results on April 29. Q1'26e group net sales
are seen to grow strongly 39% yoy to EUR 26.9m, with Defense & Security doing
the heavy lifting with an impressive +91% yoy to EUR 20.5m (eNuW). Aggregate
growth in Q1 is expected to exceed the FY26e run rate of +28% (eNuW),
largely reflecting the favourable low base of Q1'25 (EUR 19.3m) and the
tailwind from the three major orders secured in December 2025; Finnish
Defence Forces (EUR 15.9m), Austrian Armed Forces (EUR 18.5m) and Indra Sistemas
(EUR 50m).

Q1'26e EBITDA is seen to more than triple yoy to EUR 5.2m, implying a 19%
margin, up 10pp yoy (eNuW). The improvement should mainly reflect the strong
sales ramp up in Defense & Security and related operating leverage. Q1'26e
EBIT is expected at EUR 1.5m, up from EUR 0.4m in Q1'25, implying a 6% margin
(+4pp yoy; eNuW). While still shaped by seasonality and accelerated
amortisation related to the Indra technology transfer, the latter which we
estimate to weigh on margins by c. 8pp, Q1 profitability should already mark
a clear step towards the group's 24% structural EBIT margin (eNuW).

The Defense & Security order backlog stood at EUR 70.9m at end-2025, which
covers ~60% of FY26e sales of EUR ~119m for the segment (eNuW). With this,
visibility is noticeably better than it was at this point in prior years;
the beginning backlog in Defense & Security covered 34% of the FY24 segment
sales and 40% of FY25 segment sales respectively. With the additional EUR 20m
Indra follow-on order received in January 2026, the order backlog provides a
robust runway toward Bittium's sales guidance of EUR 140m - EUR 155m. Based on
our own estimates, Bittium would need EUR ~44m in new orders to achieve eNuW
FY26e sales, which sits on the upper end of the guidance at EUR 152.9m (eNuW).

Likely candidates to bridge the eNuW FY26e sales gap are: (i) a first double
digit EURm order from the Swedish Armed Forces, (ii) winning a new military as
a major customer (Bittium is currently in talks with 10+ militaries to renew
tactical communication systems), or (iii) leverage the installed base
through follow-on orders or cross-selling. Finally, (iv) the UK tender can
be truly transformational. As flagged in previous notes, we see either
Bittium or Thales winning the tender. Further, a collaboration between
different vendors cannot be excluded. While it is difficult to exactly gauge
the financial opportunity for Bittium here, a significant involvement in the
UK tactical communications procurement would inevitably trigger a guidance
hike (eNuW). Noteworthy: while the UK tender is scheduled for conclusion in
June 2026, the program has been mired with delays, creating uncertainty on
timing. Against this backdrop, the key focus for the Q1 release, in addition
to Q1 performance, will be on any incremental pipeline commentary.

We only make minor adjustments to our model ahead of Q1'26 results. We keep
our BUY rating and PT of EUR 40 unchanged, based on DCF model.

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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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