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Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG

27.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A41YCM0

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 9.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Mixed Q1 figures; guidance confirmed

Last week, NAGA reported preliminary Q1 figures that came in as a mixed bag
with softer than expected revenues but strong bottom line. Further, the
company confirmed its FY26 guidance. In detail:

Q1Ž26 revenues came in at EUR 14.4m (-12% yoy) mainly caused by negative FX
effects resulting from the week EUR compared to USD. Operationally, high
volatility events in March (Iran war) fuelled all KPIŽs (i.e. +13% active
customer, +21% trading volume, +17% new FTDs) and compensated for soft
January and February stats resulting in flat revenues (yoy, ignoring FX
effects)

EBITDA of EUR 2.3m (+130% yoy) was surprisingly strong, indicating that costs
are well under control (all OPEX positions were below previous yearŽs level)
and operational efficiency starts to materialize. Net profit came in at EUR
0.5m marking the first positive Q1 in NAGAŽs history.

In a nutshell, we like the strong bottom line performance but are a bit
worried regarding the top-line development. Usually Q1 and Q4 are the
strongest quarters in retail brokerage and despite positive vola-events in
March, Q1 revenues were "only" stable (on constant currency). That, paired
with the fact that revenues have not shown any growth over the last years,
the revenue guidance of EUR 68-75m looks ambitious, in our view (eNuW new: EUR
64m). Positively, the strong momentum in March should carry revenue growth
will into Q2. Further, new product features such as AI-marketing (every
campaign trains the next) or the "NAGA Portal" as "B2B2C Scale Engine"
(using partners as micro influencers) are promising and should bode well for
KPIŽs and revenues going forward.

Once revenue growth is finally kicking back in, NAGA is expected to enjoy
significant operational scale effects that are typical for platform
businesses. That said, we remain cautious for the moment expecting only EUR
9.0m EBITDA (14% margin) for FY26 which is below management guidance of EUR
10-15m EBITDA (implying margins of 15-20%). Once we see indications of
sustainable growth, we will adjust our estimates accordingly.

With Q1 figures, the company delivered a solid start into the year.
Nevertheless, it needs further sequential improvements, especially on the
top-line to achieve the guidance. We are convinced that the management took
the right measures but leave some room for positive surprises in our
estimates.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 9.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=486746332f2078725f118f5a873b9afa
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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2315126 27.04.2026 CET/CEST

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