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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

05.05.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 5.0
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Weak Q3p amid early UCL exit

Yesterday, BVB published preliminary Q3 figures, that clearly display the
effect of the UCL play-off round exit against Atalanta. In detail:

Sales declined 16.1% yoy to EUR 125m (eNuW: EUR 137m), with the shortfall almost
entirely attributable to the early UCL exit in February. TV Marketing bore
the brunt, falling 27.3% yoy to EUR 46.8m (eNuW: EUR 49.3m), a result of the
absence of the associated UEFA premium payments (EUR 11m). Match operations
also declined 3% to EUR 19.7m (eNuW: EUR 20.3m) despite the same amount of home
games (9), however we saw a comparably low attendance (76k) in the Atalanta
match. Conference, Catering & Others (-20.4% to EUR 10.9m; eNuW: EUR 12.0m ) and
Merchandising (-15.3% to EUR 8.3m; eNuW: EUR 11.0m) also declined, while
Advertising held up comparably well (-3.4% to EUR 39.2m; eNuW: EUR 44.0m).

On the bottom-line, Q3 EBITDA fell to EUR 12.4m (prior year: EUR 29.6m; eNuW: EUR
13.2m), implying a margin of 9.9% (-9.9pp yoy). The decline was further
compounded by a near-absent transfer result of only EUR 0.2m in the quarter
(prior year: EUR 12.6m). On the cost side, personnel expenses improved
meaningfully to EUR 68.3m (-15.7% yoy), reflecting lower variable bonus
payments tied to the UCL exit, which provided at least a partial offset to
the revenue headwinds. Other operating expenses also declined to EUR 37.4m
(prior year: EUR 43.2m), consistent with the lower activity level in the
quarter. Looking at the 9M picture, things are considerably more
constructive as cumulative EBITDA rose 6.6% yoy to EUR 94.1m, underpinned by a
strong transfer result of EUR 55.1m for the nine-month period (+EUR 20.3m yoy),
confirming that the full-year trajectory remains on track despite the Q3
noise. The company's FY25/26 net income guidance of EUR -22 to -12m remains
intact, and we continue to position ourselves at the more constructive end
of that range (eNuW: EUR -9.3m).

Looking at the on-pitch performance, BVB meanwhile secured 2nd place in the
Bundesliga, guaranteeing UCL participation for the next season. In our view,
this is the key financial read-through from the current season, as UCL
revenues alone account for an estimated EUR 78m in TV Marketing sales in a
typical round of 16 campaign (c. 16% of group sales), roughly 5x what the
club would generate in the Europa League. With qualification now secured,
the financial foundation for FY26/27 is firmly in place, and we expect the
club to enter the summer transfer window from a position of strength, both
in terms of squad quality and financial flexibility. With the communicated
departures of veteran players like Brandt, Süle or Özcan, the club is also
set for a, in our view, well needed squad rejuvenation this summer. The
resulting wage bill reduction should provide meaningful headroom to reinvest
in younger, high-potential talent in line with BVB's proven Scout & Develop
philosophy - a strategy that has historically generated substantial transfer
returns and should continue to do so in the seasons ahead.

Action. We reduce estimates to reflect the weaker than expected Q3p and also
apply a slightly more conservative forecast.

Reiterate BUY with a new PT of EUR 5.00 based on DCF.

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Web: www.nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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