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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

15.05.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 14.5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q1 confirms to group's growth trajectory

tonies delivered a strong Q1 2026, with group revenue of EUR 126m, +35% yoy in
constant currency, largely in line with eNuW and consensus of EUR 123m.
Reported growth was slightly lower at 29% due to USD/EUR headwinds (should
fade from June onwards). Next to an earlier Easter providing a modest timing
tailwind, Toniebox 2 hardware momentum remains exceptional, with box
revenues up 54% yoy at EUR 25m; figurines +25% yoy at EUR 95m. Full-year
guidance confirmed. Management expects >EUR 760m revenue (eNuW: 793m, eCons EUR
778m) and 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eNuW: 10.0%, eCons 10.4%).

DACH: 28% growth in a near-saturated market underpins TB2 TAM expansion. The
DACH region, where tonies holds ~50% household penetration among 3-7 year
olds and 80% brand awareness, returned to strong growth. TB2 is broadening
the addressable age group to 1-9 years via My First Tonies and Tonieplay,
adding a new demand layer on top of the existing base. tonies added more
revenue yoy than any other property or manufacturer in German preschool
toys, for the 12th consecutive quarter as category leader.

North America: already #2 in US preschool toys. North America contributed EUR
48m (+34% cc) as tonies is now the #2 preschool toy in the US (vs #6 just 1
year ago). The Q4 2025 customer cohort is showing strong figurine-buying
behaviour in early 2026.

Rest of World: 53% growth, yet still in early innings. ROW surged to EUR 28m
(+53% cc), driven by the UK, France, and Australia, in all of which tonies
now ranks as the #1 preschool toy. tonies is leading while still at a very
early penetration stage in each territory. This mirrors the early DACH
trajectory and reinforces our view that ROW will quickly transform into a
significant revenue contributor (eNuW: 34% CAGR to EUR 335m through FY28e).

TB2 flywheel spinning, Pokémon and Sports collaborations. Toniebox revenue
grew over 60% yoy cc in Q1. The TB2's expanded age range and Tonieplay
functionality are clearly resonating with consumers. Figurine revenues grew
~30% yoy cc to to EUR 95m, the key recurring revenue metric. Looking ahead,
Pokémon (world's highest-grossing IP) launches in summer 2026 and should be
a significant customer acquisition driver. The DFL/Bundesliga Tonieplay
collaboration opens sports as an entirely new content genre, scalable to
other leagues globally.

Current risks largely mitigated. US tariffs are being managed via sourcing
flexibility, pricing levers, and secured inventory. Freight is largely
unaffected through routing via the Cape of Good Hope and low per-unit costs
on figurines. On FX, natural hedges in the cost base limit P&L impact
despite top-line headwinds. Consumer sentiment risk is mitigated by category
resilience; families consistently prioritise quality children's experiences.

CMD, a potential catalyst. on June 18th, we expect the company to shed
additional light on mid-term targets, international expansion plans and
Tonieplay monetisation.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 14.50 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=819c844e437762663a07deb68271a643
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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