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Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - from NuWays AG

08.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to The NAGA Group AG

Company Name: The NAGA Group AG
ISIN: DE000A41YCM0

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 7.30
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller

Cost work done, growth is next, chg.

Recently, NAGA published its audited FY25 financial statements, confirming
group revenues of EUR 62.4m (FY24: EUR 63.2m), broadly in line with the
preliminary figures. FX-adj. revenue growth stood at 3.5% yoy, pointing to a
more resilient underlying development than the reported top-line suggests.
EBITDA came in at EUR 3.7m (FY24: EUR 9.0m) 12% above the preliminary figure.

The audited FY25 figures highlight progress in cost and marketing efficiency.
Most relevant is the improvement in customer acquisition, with marketing
spend up 15.6% yoy, new funded accounts up 37.5% and CAC down 16.5%. This
links directly to the Q1 26 pattern, where a 9.7pp yoy EBITDA margin
improvement was accompanied by healthier client KPIs, including higher
trading volumes, stronger activity, rising net deposits and lower
withdrawals. In our view, these data points suggest that the leaner setup is
increasingly translating into better operating quality.

FY26 guidance remains at EUR 68-75m revenues and EUR 10-15m EBITDA. At the lower
end, this implies c. 16% yoy revenue growth for the remaining nine months,
requiring a visible acceleration from the Q1 run-rate. The implied EBITDA
increase for the remaining nine months is c. 189% yoy, which looks demanding
but is flattered by a low prior-year base. A weaker EUR could provide some
tailwind to reported revenue growth over the coming quarters. Despite an
encouraging Q1 exit rate, we remain conservatively below guidance with our
FY26 estimates of EUR 64.4m revenues and EUR 9.0m EBITDA, pending further
visibility on the sales improvement.

Separately, NAGA received a MiCA authorization from the CySEC, allowing it
to provide regulated crypto-asset services across the EU under the bloc's
harmonized crypto framework. This strengthens the regulatory foundation of
its crypto offering and supports the integration of digital assets into NAGA
ONE, the group's SuperApp for payments, investing and trading. Near term,
the market backdrop remains less supportive, with crypto prices under
pressure and volatility low by historical standards (source: Deribit),
limiting trading activity and monetization. We therefore see MiCA mainly as
a strategic milestone rather than an immediate earnings driver. In a more
normalized crypto market, the license should help NAGA scale its crypto
services in Europe.

In sum, NAGA is visibly operating with a more efficient structure, improved
profitability and better client KPIs. High management ownership of c. 43%
provides shareholder alignment, while ongoing product improvements,
including NAGA ONE, AI-supported processes and the regulated crypto layer
under MiCA, should strengthen the platform proposition. Improved revenue
growth could be the next catalyst, in our view. With the cost base now more
efficient, even moderate sales acceleration should translate more visibly
into earnings, provided cost discipline is maintained. This leaves NAGA with
a more scalable setup and a clearer path towards stronger profitability.

BUY with a PT of EUR 7.30 (old: EUR 9.50), based on an overhauled DCF,
reflecting more conservative mid-term growth assumptions following analyst
change.

You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=49e90193f3452b7f1c25c21fe1151535
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
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2362124 08.07.2026 CET/CEST

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